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|
|
INCREASED REVENUE |
Actual |
Actual |
Revised Budget |
Proposed |
PROJECTED |
|
|
Medicaid |
2001 |
2002 |
2003 |
2004 |
2005 |
2006 |
|
Projected revenue w/ no intervention |
$16,700,000 |
$16,700,000 |
$16,700,000 |
$17,044,020 |
$17,453,076 |
$17,871,950 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Funds recovered/estimates |
$19,658,642 |
$19,661,340 |
$19,700,000 |
$23,252,609 |
$24,000,000 |
$25,000,000 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Increase over projected level |
$2,958,642 |
$2,961,340 |
$3,000,000 |
$6,208,589 |
$6,546,924 |
$7,128,050 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Administrative claim |
$0 |
$0 |
$600,000 |
$612,360 |
$627,057 |
$642,106 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Additional Revenue |
|
|
$3,600,000 |
$6,820,949 |
$7,173,980 |
$7,770,156 |
|
Portion going toward the $10.3 m savings in 2003 |
|
$3,600,000 |
$3,674,160 |
$3,762,340 |
$3,852,636 |
|
Portion above the $10.3 m savings in 2003 |
|
$0 |
$3,146,789 |
$3,411,640 |
$3,917,520 |
Assumptions:
- Projected revenue with no intervention in FY01 is based on estimates
from DCPS staff due to limited data collection capacity and data
integrity at the time of estimates. From FY2004 onwards, it is based
on inflation over the FY 2003 figure.
- Medicaid rates are renegotiated on a periodic basis and are not
adjusted yearly to reflect inflation.
- FY02 Actual reflects payment to contractor and a set-aside for
possible disallowances. FY02 revenue estimate is $22,139,941.
- FY04 projected recovery is ORA certified revenue estimate.
- FY06 projection $25M is based on expert opinion from 4GL-DCPS
contractor providing SETS and Encounter Tracker.
- FY05-06 projections account for decrease in special education
population and increase in cost of services.
- Assumes federal CMS approval of administrative claim for
reimbursement of MRU @$600,000 in FY03. Administrative claim for
FY04-06 is adjusted for inflation.
|
NONPUBLIC TUITION |
Actual |
Actual |
Budgeted |
Proposed |
PROJECTED |
|
|
|
2001 |
2002 |
2003 |
2004 |
2005 |
2006 |
|
Projected expenditures w/ no intervention |
$83,447,232 |
$96,457,456 |
$103,209,478 |
$110,434,141 |
$118,164,531 |
$126,436,048 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Costs with Intervention Strategies |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Day programs |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Average annual cost/placement |
|
$35,500 |
$32,400 |
$32,000 |
$32,768 |
$33,554 |
|
Number of placements |
|
2048 |
2150 |
2150 |
2100 |
2050 |
|
Cost |
|
$72,704,000 |
$69,660,000 |
$68,800,000 |
$68,812,800 |
$68,786,586 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Residential |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Average annual cost/placement |
|
$66,500 |
$63,000 |
$63,000 |
$64,512 |
$66,060 |
|
Number of placements |
|
371 |
350 |
350 |
340 |
330 |
|
Cost |
|
$24,671,500 |
$22,050,000 |
$22,050,000 |
$21,934,080 |
$21,799,895 |
|
Total Projected Cost |
$83,447,232 |
$97,375,500 |
$91,710,000 |
$90,850,000 |
$90,746,880 |
$90,586,481 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Savings from projection |
$0 |
-$918,044 |
$11,499,478 |
$19,584,141 |
$27,417,651 |
$35,849,567 |
|
Portion going toward the $10.3 m savings in 2003 |
|
$750,000 |
$765,450 |
$783,821 |
$802,632 |
|
Portion above the $10.3 m savings in 2003 |
|
$10,749,478 |
$18,818,691 |
$26,633,830 |
$35,046,935 |
Assumptions:
- FY2003-2006 projected expenditures with no intervention are based on
average 7% increase in tuition payments based on historical trend.
- Placements will decrease based on goal of creating 250 new slots in
DCPS beginning in FY04. In FY03, capacity was expanded by 100 slots.
- Based on Sept. bills, the average cost per placement is $37,000;
however, revision of court ordered payment process and improved bill
review process will decrease average cost. September payment process,
the first on the new PAPS cycle, resulted in savings of $1 million or
$395/child.
- In negotiation with 13 providers to set an agreed upon rate to
further bring down tuition costs.
- Cost per placement with DCALA - a contracted vendor for day
placements - is $19,500. Cost for a DCPS placement = $18,909; cost for
upper-end day placement = $65,000. More contracts = lower costs.
- Placement costs for FY05-06 are held steady at FY04 rates and
adjusted for inflation.
|
ADDITIONAL (REDUCED) savings if we inflate
"projected" line at annual rate of: |
|
|
|
4% |
|
|
($2,893,724) |
($6,105,757) |
($9,663,011) |
($13,594,468) |
|
5% |
|
|
($1,929,149) |
($4,089,796) |
($6,502,969) |
($9,191,408) |
|
6% |
|
|
($964,575) |
($2,054,544) |
($3,282,158) |
($4,660,733) |
|
7% |
|
|
$0 |
$0 |
$0 |
$0 |
|
8% |
|
|
$964,575 |
$2,073,835 |
$3,344,084 |
$4,793,256 |
|
9% |
|
|
$1,929,149 |
$4,166,962 |
$6,750,671 |
$9,721,523 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Growth rate used: |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
7.0% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
ATTORNEY FEES |
Actual |
Actual |
Budgeted |
Proposed |
PROJECTED |
|
|
|
2001 |
2002 |
2003 |
2004 |
2005 |
2006 |
|
Projected expenditures w/ no intervention |
$3,546,417 |
$13,866,000 |
$14,151,640 |
$14,443,163 |
$14,789,799 |
$15,144,754 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
# of hearings |
|
2289 |
2600 |
650 |
600 |
550 |
|
Avg atty fee cost/hearing |
|
$4,806 |
$3,800 |
$7,500 |
$7,673 |
$7,849 |
|
Cost |
|
$11,000,934 |
$9,880,000 |
$4,875,000 |
$4,603,800 |
$4,316,950 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
# of mediations/settlements |
|
0 |
20 |
1400 |
1200 |
1000 |
|
Average fee cost/mediation |
|
$0 |
$2,500 |
$3,000 |
$3,069 |
$3,140 |
|
Cost |
|
$0 |
$50,000 |
$4,200,000 |
$3,682,800 |
$3,140,000 |
|
TOTAL COST |
|
$11,000,934 |
$9,930,000 |
$9,075,000 |
$8,286,600 |
$7,456,950 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Savings from Projection |
|
$2,865,066 |
$4,221,640 |
$5,368,163 |
$6,503,199 |
$7,687,804 |
|
Less portion going toward the $10.3 m savings in
2003 |
|
$3,866,000 |
$3,945,640 |
$4,040,335 |
$4,137,303 |
|
Savings counted toward total |
|
|
$355,640 |
$1,422,524 |
$2,462,864 |
$3,550,501 |
Assumptions:
- FY02 projected expenditure is based on payment of $11M in fees and
saving $3M due to bill review. FY04-06 projections are adjusted for
inflation. Bill review savings will be experienced each fiscal year.
- Fee reductions in FY03 are based on 2 DCPS paralegals hired solely
to do bill review. Review of 731 bills by paralegals resulting in
$2.7M in payments = avg. cost of $$3,822. (Savings to date of $3.0M)
- Average per case fees are expected to increase in FY04 as attorneys
are likely to spend more time per case. Current avg. length/case =
<1 day. projected avg. length/case is 1.38 days based on Maryland
benchmarking. FY05 and FY06 attorney fees and mediation costs are held
constant at FY04 level and adjusted for inflation based on Laffey
Matrix average of 2.3% of annual increase.
- FY04 Student Hearing Office transitions to City Office of
Administrative Hearings. OAS estimates that a combination of filing
consolidations and increased mediations and settlements will result in
reducing the number of HODs in FY04 to 540. This estimate is adjusted
upward for conservative forecasting.
- Mediation/Settlement amount is based on current average cost per SA
= $2,500. In FY04-06 this is expected to increase similar to average
fee, starting at $3,000 in FY04. #of mediations/SAs based on current
caseload and projected cases going to hearings.
- Attorney fees for FY01 are significantly lower due to the fee cap
that existed during FY01.
|
IMPROVED MANAGEMENT |
Actual |
Actual |
Budgeted |
Proposed |
PROJECTED |
|
|
|
2001 |
2002 |
2003 |
2004 |
2005 |
2006 |
|
Better utilization of grant funds |
$0 |
$0 |
$500,000 |
$510,300 |
$522,547 |
$535,088 |
|
Salary lapse savings |
$0 |
$0 |
$250,000 |
$0 |
$0 |
$0 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Replacing contracts with FTE |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
OT/PT Replacement |
$0 |
$0 |
$404,161 |
$586,560 |
$600,637 |
$615,053 |
|
DCPS Rapid Response Team |
$0 |
$0 |
$0 |
$641,964 |
$657,371 |
$673,148 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Related service contract review |
$0 |
$340,000 |
$349,384 |
$356,581 |
$365,139 |
$373,903 |
|
Independent evaluation savings |
$0 |
$1,000,000 |
$1,027,600 |
$1,048,769 |
$1,073,939 |
$1,099,714 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Total management efficiencies |
|
$1,340,000 |
$2,531,145 |
$3,144,174 |
$3,219,634 |
$3,296,905 |
|
Savings relative to 2002 |
|
$0 |
$1,154,161 |
$1,738,824 |
$1,780,556 |
$1,823,289 |
Assumptions:
- In FY03, 6 Occuptional Therapist/Physical Therapist FTE will be
hired to sunset existing contract; avg. hourly rate for contract OT/PT
= $74; hrly rate for ET 15 = $27 (including benefits). $47/hour
savings @ 2080 hours = $97,700 per FTE. FY03 amount for contractors in
$692,640 based on current contracts; cost for 6 FTE is $288,479
(taking into account salary lapse between bargaining year and actual
hire date in FY03).
- FY04 and 05, and additional 4-person Rapid Response Team will be
added to replace the need for contractors to conduct assessments.
Contractor equivalent of Team = $870,000. 4 FTE @ ET15 =
$228,036.
- Savings in FY05-06 are adjusted for inflation.
- Independent evaluation savings result from actions taken by BOE and
Superintendent to cap fees charged to DCPS for third party assessments
on children referred to special education.
|
TRANSPORTATION SAVINGS |
Actual |
Actual |
Budgeted |
Proposed |
PROJECTED |
|
|
|
2001 |
2002 |
2003 |
2004 |
2005 |
2006 |
|
# of new students on Metro |
|
0 |
100 |
150 |
200 |
250 |
|
Savings per student |
|
$9,700 |
$9,700 |
$9,900 |
$10,137 |
$10,381 |
|
Costs Avoided |
$0 |
$0 |
$970,000 |
$1,484,973 |
$2,027,483 |
$2,595,178 |
Assumptions:
- In FY02 approx. 1000 students instead of DCPS buses @ approx.
$300/student. Avg. cost/student for transportation = $10,000. Savings
per/student = $9,700.
- FY03-05 assumes growing the travel training program over time.
|
INVESTMENTS |
Actual |
Actual |
Budgeted |
Proposed |
PROJECTED |
|
|
|
2001 |
2002 |
2003 |
2004 |
2005 |
2006 |
|
Costs related to DCPS placements |
$0 |
$0 |
$0 |
$6,427,500 |
$6,581,760 |
$6,739,722 |
Assumptions:
- Additional related services for students returned to DCPS from
nonpublics is estimated to be $7,801/student based on FY02
expenditures for providers on staff and contractors. Start-up costs
are estimated to be $17,909/child for 250 students per year.
- FY05-06 invests are adjusted for inflation.
|
SUMMARY OF SAVINGS |
|
|
|
|
|
|
2003 |
2004 |
2005 |
2006 |
|
1 Increased Revenue |
$0 |
$3,146,789 |
$3,411,640 |
$3,917,520 |
|
2 Nonpublic Tuition |
$10,749,478 |
$18,818,691 |
$26,633,830 |
$35,046,935 |
|
3 Attorney Fees |
$355,640 |
$1,422,524 |
$2,462,864 |
$3,550,501 |
|
4 Improved Management |
$1,154,161 |
$1,738,824 |
$1,780,556 |
$1,823,289 |
|
5 Transportation Savings |
$970,000 |
$1,484,973 |
$2,027,483 |
$2,595,178 |
|
6 Investments |
$0 |
($6,427,500) |
($6,581,760) |
($6,739,722) |
|
Total (annual) |
$13,229,278 |
$20,184,301 |
$29,734,614 |
$40,193,701 |
|
Total (cumulative) |
$13,229,278 |
$33,413,579 |
$63,148,193 |
$103,341,894 |
GENERAL ASSUMPTIONS:
Savings are measured above the $10.3 million that has already been
committed to for FY03 savings.
In all tables, "FY2002 Actuals" are estimates pending
year-end close. |
